| The role of climate variables modeling in the distribution of two-spotted spider mite in Tehran province |
| Paper ID : 1170-IPCA4 (R1) |
| Authors |
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Maryam Rezaie *1, Reza JavanNezhad2 1Zoology department 2Shahid Sattari Aeronautical University, |
| Abstract |
| Species distribution modeling is one of the most common methods for determining the range and potential territory of geographical distribution of plant and animal species and usually determining this distribution in order to determine the appropriate environmental conditions as well as the action of species to this condition is used. In this study the MaxEnt model was used to assess potential distribution in several stations (orchards) of Tehran province. Modeling the distribution of two-spotted spider mites using 7 environmental predictors and presence records including average temperature of the hottest season of the year, average temperature of the coldest season of the year, annual rainfall, rainfall of the hottest season of the year, rainfall of the coldest season of the year, maximum temperature of the hottest month of the year and minimum temperature of the coldest month are among the 19 climatic variables. We used ROC curve analysis and the area below the AUC curve, which is a numerical indicator of the recognizing of the model's presence to evaluate the modeling result. AUC value equal to one means complete forecasting and without removing any of the presence points, above 0.9 indicates very good performance, above 0.8 indicates good performance, above 0.7 indicates acceptable performance. AUC value equal to 0.5, is a random prediction for the expected model. AUC value in this study is equal to 0.8. The accuracy models were also evaluated by the area receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value in this study. According to the Jacknife test, variables of the temperature of the coldest season of the year, rainfall of the hottest season of the year, average temperature of the hottest season of the year and average temperature of the hottest season of the year were the most contributing in two-spotted spider mite distribution modeling in this province. Since the Tehran province is located near the Alborz mountain range and Damavand peak in the northern regions and on the other hand, the presence of the hot and dry climate in southern and southeastern regions, it seems that distribution of two-spotted spider mite in this province is related to early spring rains and summer heat. |
| Keywords |
| Modeling, Distribution, MaxEnt, Two-spotted spider mite, Climate Variables. |
| Status: Abstract Accepted (Poster Presentation) |